Oscar Predictions: Director
Director Nominations: Joel & Ethan Coen (No Country For Old Men), Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly), Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood), Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton), Jason Reitman (Juno)
The Coens have been unstoppable in the precursors and so you’d be unwise to bet against them. This is often a place the Academy agrees with the prior judging groups so I’d put all my money on the brothers taking it.
Paul Thomas Anderson joins them in the category of ‘should have won before’ but it seems the momentum is with the Coens at this point. Schnabel too must take a dark horse spot due to the quality of his prior work, particularly regarding the snub for Before Night Falls.
Gilroy and Reitman are almost no-hopers, neither really taking control of the movies. Gilroy is the stronger contender of the two, due to the visual style particuarly, but the stars of his show are the ensemble and the script. Exactly the same with Reitman, except it’s Ellen Page who towers over the rest of the film.
Will Win: The Coens
Should Win: The Coens or Paul Thomas Anderson
Dark Horse: Julian Schnabel